GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Cable Retests Prior High After Clean Bullish Structure

The short-term trend remains firmly bullish after a staged rally from the strong low near 1.3479, built through repeated BOS and CHoCH confirmations. Price is now retesting the prior swing high close to 1.3547, with today’s US labor market data set to decide whether that level breaks or holds.

Today’s Economic Calendar

12:30	US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)	High	A strong beat above the ~55–56K consensus supports the Dollar and pressures GBPUSD; a soft print revives Fed pause bets and lifts the pair
12:30	US Unemployment Rate (Aug)	High	A rise from 4.1% weighs on the Dollar and helps GBPUSD; a steady reading limits upside
12:30	US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Medium	Hotter wage growth supports the Dollar, a headwind for GBPUSD

No Bank of England decision is scheduled this week; the next meeting is 17 September, so today’s session is USD-driven.

GBPUSD Market Structure Analysis

The M15 chart shows a disciplined bullish sequence from the strong low near 1.3479. Price swept the equal lows resting just below that level, then confirmed a break of structure higher, followed by a second BOS as the advance gathered pace. A larger change of character near 1.3515 marked the shift into a stronger impulsive leg that pushed price toward 1.3547.

That first test of 1.3547 was rejected, and price retraced sharply back into the 1.3501–1.3511 zone before finding support. Two further character shifts confirmed buyers stepping back in, near 1.3520 and 1.3529, consistent with core smart money concepts around mitigation and continuation. A fresh BOS near 1.3538 extended the recovery, and price is now back at the 1.3543–1.3547 area for a second test of the same resistance.

Beneath current price sit several nested demand order blocks: 1.3524–1.3529, 1.3520–1.3524, a wider zone at 1.3502–1.3511, and deeper untested zones near 1.3488–1.3493 and 1.3479–1.3484 aligned with the strong low. The stacked structure shows a market that has been buying every pullback, which keeps the broader bias bullish unless the strong low is broken.

GBPUSD Trading Plan Today

Entry Plan	Market Bias	Entry Zone	Stop Loss	Take Profit 1	Take Profit 2	Risk Reward	Possible Gain (Pips)
1	Bullish (breakout)	1.3547–1.3549 (retest after reclaim)	1.3541	1.3555	1.3565	1:2.3	60–160
2	Bearish (rejection)	1.3545–1.3547 (resistance rejection)	1.3551	1.3529	1.3520	1:2.9	160–270
3	Bullish (continuation)	1.3524–1.3529 (demand retest)	1.3517	1.3538	1.3547	1:1.6	90–180
4	Bearish (breakdown)	1.3518–1.3520 (retest after break)	1.3525	1.3511	1.3502	1:1.3	70–150

Confirmation: wait for a clean M15 candle close inside the stated zone with a rejection wick or a structure break before entering; avoid entries during the NFP release window itself.

GBPUSD Price Outlook

Bullish Scenario: A reclaim and M15 close above 1.3547 confirms buyers have cleared the prior swing high. Confirmation comes from a retest that holds as support. Targets sit at 1.3555 and 1.3565. Invalidation is a close back below 1.3538.

Bearish Scenario: A rejection at 1.3547 that breaks below 1.3520 opens a deeper retracement. Confirmation requires a retest of that zone as resistance. Targets are 1.3511 and 1.3502. Invalidation is a reclaim of 1.3529.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Level	Technical Reason
Resistance 2	1.35465 — Prior swing high, current resistance test
Resistance 1	1.35375 — BOS high from the recovery leg
Pivot	1.35425 — Current price, inside the retest zone
Support 1	1.35285 — CHoCH origin, demand order block
Support 2	1.35105 — Deeper demand zone from pre-rally range

What Happened in Last Week

Sterling entered the week near 1.3550 after retreating from a late-August test of the 1.3650–1.3675 area, with the broader picture shaped by the Bank of England’s split-vote hold at 3.75% on 30 July and no fresh domestic catalyst until the 17 September meeting. That left GBP/USD reacting mainly to Dollar swings tied to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut and the subsequent run of US labor data. On the chart, that backdrop produced the strong low near 1.3479, a sharp bullish recovery through several BOS and CHoCH confirmations, and a first failed attempt at the 1.3547 high before Thursday’s pullback and renewed push higher.

This Week’s Technical and News Impact Overall

Structurally, GBP/USD has built a genuine staircase uptrend from the strong low, and today’s session hinges on whether the 1.3547 resistance finally gives way. Hawkish comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill this morning have kept Sterling supported into the London session, with strategists noting market focus is already shifting toward the BoE’s November meeting. The dominant catalyst remains the August Nonfarm Payrolls print at 12:30 GMT, with consensus near 55–56K against July’s -23K. A soft print would extend Dollar weakness and likely clear the way for GBP/USD to test 1.3565, while a strong beat revives September Fed hike pricing and increases the odds of a deeper pullback into the demand zones below 1.3530.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Middle East tensions tied to Iran remain the main unscheduled risk factor for global risk sentiment this week. Escalation tends to support the Dollar as a traditional haven, which would work against GBP/USD gains regardless of the domestic UK backdrop. A cooling in that risk removes some of the Dollar’s defensive bid and leaves today’s move more purely dependent on the Nonfarm Payrolls outcome and the Fed-BoE rate-path gap, which strategists note has narrowed to the point where relative hawkishness between the two central banks is now a genuine swing factor for the pair.

Final Outlook

GBPUSD Technical Analysis stays bullish while price holds above 1.35285, with 1.35465 the key level to clear for continuation toward 1.35650. Confirmation needs a clean M15 close beyond either boundary; invalidation is a close back below the demand structure near 1.35105 ahead of today’s Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Analyst’s Note

A second test of the same high after a full retrace and recovery is a stronger tell than the first attempt — watch how price behaves on this retest, not the level itself.

Read More

For traders following this GBPUSD Technical Analysis, these related FXRecap guides add useful context:

• The repeated structure shifts on this chart are explained further in Break of Structure and Change of Character (CHoCH)
• The nested demand zones used in today’s plan are covered in Order Block Trading Strategy
• For the broader framework behind these reads, see Smart Money Concepts
• Before sizing any of today’s entry plans, review Forex Leverage

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Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk; conduct independent research before making decisions.