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Buy the old-ceiling retest
- Entry
- 1.3385–1.3395
- Stop
- 1.3350
- TP 1
- 1.3420
- TP 2
- 1.3500
Risk : reward1:0.8–2.8
Possible gain30–110 pips
GBP/USD Analysis Today: Pound at 1.3411, Above Its 50 and 100-Day Averages Before the BoE
GBP/USD today: price, chart and key levelsUpdated 4 November 2026 · ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC
Bullish bias
ECB reference 1.3411▼ −8 pips · −0.06% vs previous
Where it sits in the 20-day range
1.3205 low1.3419 high
RSI (14)
59 neutral zone30 · 70
▲ 20-day 1.3315▲ 50-day 1.3375▲ 100-day 1.3386
Next: Bank of England decision · Thu 5 Nov
Nearest levels
R11.34209 pips above
S11.339021 pips below
Key levels
S31.3290S21.3315S11.3390Now1.3411R11.3420R21.3500R31.3655
Live quote by TradingView. Chart, levels and stats use daily reference prices (ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC). Educational content, not financial advice.
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Educational content. Not financial advice.
WriterAbir KhanWriterWrites the guides · checks every figure against primary sources View profileAbout Abir →
Market analysisTanbir Habib RiyadForex & Crypto AnalystForex and crypto analyst · technical and fundamental analysis View profileAbout Tanbir →
Fact-checking & riskJannatul FerdaushFact-Checker & Risk AnalystFact-checks every figure · risk analysis · Applied Statistics, University of Dhaka View profileAbout Jannatul →
Trading reviewJowel RanaForex TraderForex trader · reviews guides from a trader's view View profileAbout Jowel →
Final approvalRanjan N. MondolForex TraderForex trader · signs off every guide View profileAbout Ranjan →
Editorial ProcessOur process
An FX Recap team effort, from Abir Khan to Ranjan N. MondolTap a photo to see who did what
GBP/USD worked out at 1.3411 on Tuesday 3 November, using the ECB's euro reference rates, 8 pips below Monday's 1.3419, the highest in 20 working days. An 82-pip jump on 30 October carried the pair through the ceiling formed by its 50-day (1.3375) and 100-day (1.3386) averages, and it has held above them since. The 20-day average is lower at 1.3315. The 14-day RSI on the reference rates is about 59. The Bank of England announces its decision on Thursday 5 November at 12:00 UK time.
GBP/USD at a Glance
GBP/USD · British Pound / US Dollar
1.3411 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)−8 pips (−0.06%)
Today's biasBullish
Bullish above 1.3375; BoE Thursday
7-day range1.3288 to 1.3419131 pips, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)59 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averagesPrice above all three
20-day1.3315 ▲
50-day1.3375 ▲
100-day1.3386 ▲
20-day range1.3205 to 1.3419
LowHigh
1Above the 50 and 100-day averages since 30 October.
2Monday's 1.3419 is the 20-day high.
3Bank of England decides on Thursday.
Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.
GBP/USD Live Chart and Technical Meter
Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
GBP/USD live chart
British Pound / US Dollar, real-time priceGBP/USD technical meter
Live buy/sell summary of moving averages and oscillatorsTechnical summary by TradingView, updated live. A reading of indicators, not a trade signal or advice.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
R 31.3655+244 pips60-day high on reference rates (1.3656)
R 21.3500+89 pipsRound number above the 20-day high
R 11.3420+9 pips2 November reference rate (1.3419), the 20-day high
Now1.3411 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 11.3390−21 pipsOld ceiling: 50 and 100-day averages (1.3375, 1.3386) and the 21 September swing high (1.3395)
S 21.3315−96 pips20-day average (1.3315) and the 29 October rate (1.3317)
S 31.3290−121 pips28 October reference-rate swing low (1.3288)
GBP/USD Trading Plan Today
Three setups for the days ahead: buy a retest of the old ceiling at 1.3385 to 1.3395 with a stop under 1.3350, buy a close above 1.3425, or sell a close back below 1.3370 if the breakout fails. Thursday's Bank of England decision can move sterling by more than these stops, so wait for the reaction or trade smaller around it.
Buy the breakout
- Entry
- Above 1.3425 (close)
- Stop
- 1.3385
- TP 1
- 1.3470
- TP 2
- 1.3500
Risk : reward1:1.1–1.9
Possible gain45–75 pips
Sell a failed break
- Entry
- Below 1.3370 (close)
- Stop
- 1.3410
- TP 1
- 1.3315
- TP 2
- 1.3290
Risk : reward1:1.4–2.0
Possible gain55–80 pips
These levels come from daily reference rates, not intraday highs and lows, so allow a few pips either side. Keep each trade's risk to 1% to 2% of your account with the position size calculator.
Show the setups as a table
| Market Bias | Entry Zone | Stop Loss | Take Profit 1 | Take Profit 2 | Risk Reward | Possible Gain (pips) |
| Bullish | 1.3385–1.3395 | 1.3350 | 1.3420 | 1.3500 | 1:0.8–2.8 | 30–110 |
| Bullish | Above 1.3425 (close) | 1.3385 | 1.3470 | 1.3500 | 1:1.1–1.9 | 45–75 |
| Bearish | Below 1.3370 (close) | 1.3410 | 1.3315 | 1.3290 | 1:1.4–2.0 | 55–80 |
GBP/USD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases
Bullish scenario
In September three MPC members voted for a rise and UK inflation has since reached 3.5%, so a hawkish message on Thursday would support sterling. Holding 1.3390 and closing above 1.3425 would target 1.3470, then 1.3500.
Bearish scenario
A cautious Bank of England, or a strong US jobs report on Friday, could pull the rate back under the averages. A close below 1.3370 would open 1.3315 and the 28 October low near 1.3290.
GBP/USD Market Structure and Indicators
20-day average1.3315Price above by 96 pips
50-day average1.3375Price above by 36 pips
100-day average1.3386Price above by 25 pips
14-day RSI59Between 30 and 70
On the reference rates, GBP/USD slid from a 60-day high of 1.3656 to 1.3201 on 2 October, built a base above 1.3200 and climbed to 1.3402 on 21 October. A dip to the 20-day average followed, ending at 1.3288 on 28 October, a higher low than early October.
The breakout came on 30 October, when the rate jumped 82 pips to 1.3399, through the 50 and 100-day averages that had capped it for weeks. Monday's 1.3419 was a new 20-day high, and Tuesday's 1.3411 held most of the gain even as EUR/USD fell 37 pips, so sterling is outperforming the euro. As long as the old ceiling near 1.3375 to 1.3395 holds as support, the structure is a series of higher lows and higher highs. See our market structure guide for how we read these swings.
Last 7 Days Recap
GBP/USD gained 43 pips over the last seven working days on the reference rates, from 1.3368 to 1.3411, with three rises and four falls. Three dips of 20, 20 and 40 pips took it to 1.3288 on 28 October. Rises of 29, 82 and 20 pips then lifted it to 1.3419, and Tuesday's 8-pip dip left it at 1.3411. The 82-pip jump on 30 October was the largest move of the period.
| Date | Reference rate | Change |
| Mon 26 Oct | 1.3348 | −20 pips (−0.15%) |
| Tue 27 Oct | 1.3328 | −20 pips (−0.15%) |
| Wed 28 Oct | 1.3288 | −40 pips (−0.30%) |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1.3317 | +29 pips (+0.22%) |
| Fri 30 Oct | 1.3399 | +82 pips (+0.62%) |
| Mon 2 Nov | 1.3419 | +20 pips (+0.15%) |
| Tue 3 Nov | 1.3411 | −8 pips (−0.06%) |
| 7-day range | 1.3288 to 1.3419 | +43 pips (+0.32%) |
Today’s Economic Calendar and News
- Bank of England decisionHigh impact
- US jobs report (October)High impact
- Fed rate decisionHigh impact
Tuesday's main scheduled event was the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote and lifted its inflation forecasts. On the US Treasury's par curve the 2-year yield closed at 4.61% and the 10-year at 4.95%, both slightly higher on the day. US midterm election results came in overnight, after these rates were set; the Associated Press called the Senate for the Democrats, as reported by PBS NewsHour, and those results are unofficial until certified. Spot gold was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC on Wednesday (gold-api.com). The Bank of England decides on Thursday and the US jobs report follows on Friday. Currency prices on this page are ECB reference rates from Tuesday 3 November; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For GBP/USD, our Bank of England preview sets out each MPC member's view from September, and our UK inflation story covers the latest CPI figures.
Live economic calendar
Upcoming releases, updated in real timeGeopolitical Factors and Market Impact
Energy is the main outside force on the pound. Petrol and diesel drove UK inflation to 3.5% in September, according to the ONS. Higher energy costs lift inflation but weigh on spending, which leaves the Bank of England with a hard choice and keeps sterling sensitive to every swing in oil.
Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note
Bottom line
GBP/USD has broken above its 50 and 100-day averages and made a 20-day high. The bias is bullish above 1.3375: buy a retest of 1.3385 to 1.3395 or a close above 1.3425, and switch to selling only on a close below 1.3370. Thursday's Bank of England decision is the test.
The pound broke its ceiling and has held above it for three days while the euro slipped. That is real strength, but I would not chase it into a central bank decision.
“I would buy a retest of 1.3385 to 1.3395 with a stop under 1.3350, aiming for 1.3420 and then 1.3500. A close under 1.3370 would make me a seller for 1.3315.”
Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap
Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools
- Confirm the bias: Bullish above 1.3375; BoE Thursday. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
- Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 1.3420 · 1.3500 · 1.3655, support 1.3390 · 1.3315 · 1.3290.
- Note the event times: Bank of England decision (thu 5 nov), US jobs report (October) (fri 6 nov), Fed rate decision (wed 9 dec). Spreads often widen around Thu 5 Nov UTC.
- Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
- Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
- Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart
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Disclaimer: this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly. Prices quoted are as of 4 November 2026, ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
Read More
For traders working through today’s GBPUSD Technical Analysis, these FXRecap resources cover the concepts used above:
Follow FXRecap on YouTube for quick, chart-based analysis of gold, forex majors, indices, and major market moves: https://www.youtube.com/@fxrecap
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.nk Ratealized financial advice. Trading involves risk; always conduct independent research.
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