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Forex news today
The day's market-moving releases, written up from the official source: central banks, inflation, jobs and growth, plus what they mean for the major pairs.
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RBA Raises the Cash Rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 Vote and Pushes Its Inflation Forecasts Higher
Three members wanted to wait, but the Board went ahead with a fifth rise this year and now sees inflation above 3% until late 2027. What it means for AUD/USD.
Read the story →
Bank of England Preview: Three Voted for a Rise in September and Four More Said One Could Come
Forex Week Ahead: RBA and Bank of England Decide, Then Euro Inflation and US Jobs Follow
Euro Area Growth Slows to 0.4% in the Third Quarter as France Shrinks and Italy Stalls
ECB Holds at 2.50% After Debating a Hike, and Lagarde Says She Will Step Down in February
Bank of Japan Holds at 1.25% in an 8-1 Vote as One Member Pushes for 1.5%
US Economy Grew 3.4% in the Third Quarter as PCE Inflation Rose to 3.6% in SeptemberAlso today
- Gold Climbs Back Above $4,000 as the Dollar Slips After the US Midterm Vote4 November 2026
- New Zealand Unemployment Rises to 5.7% as Hours Fall and Wage Growth Stays Near 2%4 November 2026
- RBA Preview: What the September Minutes Say About a Fifth Rate Rise on Tuesday1 November 2026
Live Market pulse
- EUR/USD1.1179 (ECB, 3 Nov)Analysis
- GBP/USD1.3411 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)Analysis
- USD/JPY158.29 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)Analysis
- Gold$4,018 (spot, 06:46 UTC)Analysis
- AUD/USD0.6984 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)Analysis
- Silver–Analysis
Prices at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC, 4 November 2026, from our daily analysis. Tap a market for the full analysis.
Daily analysis
Where the majors stand
Levels, bias and trade plans, refreshed every trading day. Last update 4 November 2026.
EUR/USD↓ Bearish1.1179ECB, 3 NovTuesday's 1.1179 gave back 37 pips of an 86-pip bounce.Full analysis →GBP/USD↑ Bullish1.3411ECB-derived, 3 NovAbove the 50 and 100-day averages since 30 October.Full analysis →Gold→ Neutral$4,018spot, 06:46 UTCSpot was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC, back above $4,000.Full analysis →USD/JPY→ Neutral158.29ECB-derived, 3 NovUp 39 pips to 158.29, through the 19 October high.Full analysis →AUD/USD↓ Bearish0.6984ECB-derived, 3 NovRBA hiked to 4.85% (6-3), yet the rate fell 24 pips.Full analysis →
News feed
Every story, day by day
Thursday 29 October
Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4.00% as Two Officials Vote for Another HikeLisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a quarter-point rise. Chair Warsh called inflation too high, so December stays live for the dollar.
Bank of Canada Raises Its Rate to 2.5%, Its First Hike Since July 2023, as Oil Lifts InflationThe bank now sees inflation near 3.5% by year end and says it may need to go further, though it will proceed carefully as US tariffs weigh.
Treasury Curve Steepens After the Fed Hold: 2-Year Yield Dips to 4.67%, 10-Year Back Above 5%Short-dated yields slipped and long ones rose on the day the Fed paused, widening the 2s10s gap to 38 basis points, its widest since 19 October.Wednesday 28 October
RBNZ Holds the OCR at 2.75% in a 4-3 Vote, but Says Tighter Policy Is Likely to Be NeededThree of seven members wanted a third rise to 3%. The bank now sees inflation at 4.4% by December, so the kiwi heads into 9 December with a hike still possible.
Australian CPI Rises to 4.3% in September as Fuel Lifts Transport 8.7%; RBA Meets Next WeekHeadline inflation climbed from 4.0% and the quarterly trimmed mean hit 3.7%, keeping a fifth RBA rate rise in play for 3 November.
US 5-Year Note Auction: $70 Billion Sells at 4.845%, Down From September's 5.033%, Hours Before the FedForeign-type buyers took 60% of Tuesday's sale and dealers just 10.6%, down from 15.8%, as the euro's reference rate fell to a new 2026 low.Tuesday 27 October
RBNZ Preview: Two Hikes to 2.75%. Will the Reserve Bank Raise the OCR Again on 28 October?Inflation eased to 3.7% after the RBNZ's July and September rises, and its committee was split on the risks. What a hold or a third hike means for the kiwi.
Australian CPI Preview: August Hit 4.0%. What Wednesday's September and Quarterly Data Mean for the RBAThe ABS publishes September prices and the quarterly figures at 00:30 UTC on 28 October, five days before an RBA meeting that already raised rates four times.
US 2-Year Note Auction: $69 Billion Sells at 4.708% as Domestic Buyers Step In Before the FedMonday's sale cleared below September's 4.787% two days before the Fed, but foreign-type demand fell to 45.7%. Here is what the bidding says.Monday 26 October
ECB Preview: Two Hikes Are Done. Does the ECB Pause or Push On at 2.50% on 29 October?Inflation hit 3.8% in September, but the ECB promised no rate path and has no new forecasts this month. Here is what each outcome could mean for the euro.
RBA's Hauser Says the Inflation Outlook Looks 'Materially Worse' as Australian CPI NearsTwo senior RBA officials warned this week that inflation is not beaten, just days before Wednesday's CPI and the 3 November rate decision.
Bank of Canada Preview: Core Inflation Is Near 2%, but Tariffs and Oil Cloud Wednesday's CallThe policy rate has sat at 2.25% since 2 September. New forecasts arrive on Wednesday after US tariffs, an oil spike and a rise in inflation expectations.Sunday 25 October
Fed Preview: One More Hike Is Pencilled In for 2026. Will It Come on 28 October?September projections put one more quarter-point rise on the table by December. Weak hiring and 3.7% inflation make Wednesday a close call.
BoJ Preview: Two Rate Rises This Year, Yet the Yen Still Trades Near 157 per DollarThe Bank of Japan decides on 30 October after hikes in June and September, with new forecasts due and underlying inflation now close to 2%.Saturday 24 October
Week Ahead: Five Central Bank Decisions in Three Days, Plus US GDP and Australian CPIThe RBNZ, Bank of Canada, Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan all decide between Wednesday and Friday, with US growth and inflation data in the middle.
Gold Slips Below $4,000 After Its Worst Week Since June, Even as Real Yields FallFutures lost 4.1% to the lowest close since mid-July, and silver fell 5.8%, although the dollar was flat and inflation-adjusted yields dropped.Friday 23 October
US 10-Year Yield Drops to 4.96%, Its Biggest One-Day Fall Since August 2024A rush into bonds took 0.17 point off the 10-year yield in a day and lifted the yen, while gold slid and Brent climbed, five days before the Fed decides.
Japan's Core Inflation Jumps to 2.1% in September, a Week Before the Bank of Japan DecidesPrices excluding fresh food and energy rose 2.4%, the fastest since January, even as the gasoline tax cut kept holding the headline rate down.
UK Retail Sales Slip 0.4% in September as Warm Weather Hits Clothing, but the Quarter GrowsOnline clothing and supermarket sales fell in a warm month, yet volumes rose 0.7% over the quarter and sterling barely moved before the 5 November decision.Thursday 22 October
New Zealand Inflation Eases to 3.7% as Petrol Falls, but Domestic Prices Stay FirmCheaper petrol pulled the annual rate down from 4.1%, yet airfares, council rates and core prices kept the RBNZ under pressure before 28 October.
US 20-Year Bond Sale Clears at 5.469%, the Highest Since the Maturity Returned in 2020Demand held up better than in September, but buyers still asked for the richest 20-year yield on record, keeping long rates high before the Fed meets.
Bank of Korea Holds Its Rate at 3.00% but Keeps Further Rises on the TableAll seven board members voted to wait after two hikes, yet the bank flagged faster growth and stubborn inflation, while the won sits near a two-week high.Wednesday 21 October
UK Inflation Jumps to 3.5% in September as Fuel Prices Hit a Four-Year HighPetrol and diesel drove the biggest monthly rise in a year, and services and core prices sped up too, a hard read for the Bank of England.
Japan's Trade Deficit Narrowed to ¥537 Billion in September as Chip Exports JumpedChip and car shipments lifted exports 16.7%, yet a far larger fuel bill kept Japan in the red for the half year, a quiet weight on the yen.
South Africa's Inflation Rose to 4.5% in September as Fuel and Fares ClimbedDiesel is 46% dearer than a year ago and taxi fares are up 13.8%, pushing prices further above the Reserve Bank's band before its November meeting.Tuesday 20 October
UK Unemployment Falls to 4.7% as Vacancies Drop and Total Pay Growth SlowsMore people found work over the summer, yet firms are advertising fewer jobs and bonuses are shrinking, a mixed message for the Bank of England.
Canada's Inflation Rose to 3.1% in September on Gasoline, but Core Measures EasedPump prices pushed the headline up, yet the Bank of Canada's preferred gauges cooled, leaving its 28 October decision finely balanced.
US Housing Starts Fell 5.2% in September as Builders Slowed Ahead of the FedBuilders broke ground on fewer homes while permits held near 1.4 million, a soft signal from a sector exposed to 5% Treasury yields.Monday 19 October
China's Economy Grew 4.5% in the Third Quarter as Exports Surged and Investment FellGrowth picked up from 4.3% in the spring, but shoppers stayed cautious and investment kept shrinking, a split that matters for the Australian dollar.
Lagarde Says the Energy Shock Is Too Large to Look Through, but Keeps a Measured ToneIn a written statement to the IMF on Saturday, the ECB President flagged upside inflation risks and tighter financing ahead of the 29 October decision.
Canada's September Inflation Is Due Today: What the Bank of Canada Will Look ForGasoline drove August's 3.0% rate. Today's figure shows whether high oil prices are spreading into rent, food and services before 28 October.Sunday 18 October
IMF Closes Bangkok Meetings With an Inflation Warning: Central Banks Told to Stay FirmFinance ministers and central bank chiefs agreed in Bangkok that price stability comes first, as the IMF sees world inflation rising to 4.7% this year.
Hedge Funds Added Euro and Yen Shorts Before US Inflation Data, CFTC Figures ShowLeveraged funds raised bets against the euro by 54% in the week to 13 October, then watched EUR/USD climb as Treasury yields fell after the CPI report.Saturday 17 October
Week Ahead: UK Inflation and Jobs, China GDP and Canada CPI Before Rate WeekSix official releases from Monday to Friday, led by UK inflation on Wednesday, will set the tone for five rate decisions due from 28 October.
Dollar Ends the Week Lower as Yields Slide, Even With US Import Prices Up 8.1%The dollar index lost 0.4% as 10-year Treasury yields fell to 5.09%, while US crude jumped almost 8% and import costs kept rising.Friday 16 October
US Producer Prices Jump 1.3%, the Biggest Rise Since 2022, Yet Yields FallWholesale energy prices rose 10.8% in September and annual PPI hit 6.3%. The dollar barely reacted as 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 5.10%.
US Retail Sales Rise 0.8% in September, but Gas Stations Do the Heavy LiftingGas station receipts jumped 6.4% while spending outside autos and fuel grew only 0.2%, a soft signal for the dollar two weeks before the Fed meets.
UK Economy Grows 0.1% in August as Services Stall and Factories Pick UpFactory output rose 1.2% while services were flat. Three-month growth hit 0.7%, and the pound edged up to 1.3280 ahead of the Bank of England's November call.Thursday 15 October
US Inflation Rises to 3.7% on Gasoline, but the Dollar Gives Back Its JumpSeptember CPI rose 0.6% as gasoline jumped 9.1%. The dollar index spiked to 102.9, then gave it all back while core inflation held at 0.3%.
Fed Beige Book: Oil Costs Spread Through Prices While Hiring StallsHigher oil prices showed up in every district report, three districts saw robust price growth and most saw flat jobs, ahead of the 28 October decision.
Australian Employment Falls 39,300 as the Jobless Rate Edges Up to 4.7%Part-time jobs dropped 73,700 in September while full-time work grew. AUD/USD slipped below 0.6960 as traders weighed the RBA's next move in November.
Gold Climbs Back Toward $4,180 After a CPI Sell-Off to $4,095Gold futures lost $67 within hours of the hot US inflation report, then recovered it all overnight. Spot gold held near $4,157 early on Thursday.Monday 12 October
Dollar Holds Near 18-Month High as Markets Brace for US Inflation DataThe dollar index held near 102.2 on Monday, close to last week's 18-month peak, as oil-supply attacks in the Gulf and Wednesday's US CPI report kept traders cautious. The euro has fallen for five straight weeks.
Gold Rebounds Toward $4,200 as Long-Dated Treasury Yields EaseGold futures gained $83 in two sessions to close Friday at $4,216 as the 30-year Treasury yield slipped from its 2026 high. Spot gold held near $4,196 on Monday ahead of US inflation data.Thursday 8 October
Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Another Rate Hike by Year EndMinutes of the Fed's 15-16 September meeting, released on 7 October, show most officials expect another rate increase by year end. The dollar held near 102.3 and gold fell to a two-month low.
RBI Raises Repo Rate to 5.50%, Its First Hike Since February 2023The Reserve Bank of India lifted its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on 7 October and moved to a stance of calibrated tightening, citing oil prices and the West Asia conflict. USD/INR traded near 96.8.Friday 2 October
US Dollar Eases From 18-Month High as September Jobs DisappointUS employers added just 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The Dollar Index, which hit 102.20 on Thursday, eased after the data.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Its 2007 Peak: What It Means for ForexThe 10-year yield rose as high as 5.33% on Thursday, past its 2007 high, and the US Treasury's official close was 5.24%. Higher US yields are the main fuel behind this autumn's dollar rally.
Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.8% in September, Yet the Euro Stays Near 1.12Eurostat's flash estimate beat the 3.6% forecast, driven by an 18.8% surge in energy prices. EUR/USD barely reacted, held down by French debt worries and a stronger dollar.
Japanese Yen Bounces as Tokyo Inflation Hits 2.7% and BoJ Hike Talk GrowsUSD/JPY slipped back under 158.00 after Tokyo core inflation beat forecasts and the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions showed members open to faster hikes. Intervention risk near 160 remains.
Pound Falls to Lowest Since June as 30-Year Gilt Yield Tops 6%GBP/USD dipped below 1.3200 this week as UK borrowing costs hit their highest since 1998 and a Bank of England member pushed back on more hikes. The 28 October Budget now looms over sterling.No stories with that tag yet. Try another market.
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