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Sell the 158.60 test
- Entry
- 158.50–158.60
- Stop
- 158.95
- TP 1
- 157.95
- TP 2
- 157.30
Risk : reward1:1.5–3.1
Possible gain60–125 pips
USD/JPY Analysis Today: Pair at 158.29, Through the 19 October High and Just Under 158.60
USD/JPY today: price, chart and key levelsUpdated 4 November 2026 · ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC
Neutral bias
ECB reference 158.29▲ +39 pips · +0.25% vs previous
Where it sits in the 20-day range
156.80 low158.60 high
RSI (14)
55 neutral zone30 · 70
▲ 20-day 157.94▲ 50-day 157.38▼ 100-day 159.19
Next: US jobs report (October) · Fri 6 Nov
Nearest levels
R1158.6031 pips above
S1157.9534 pips below
Key levels
S3156.80S2157.25S1157.95Now158.29R1158.60R2158.85R3159.20
Live quote by TradingView. Chart, levels and stats use daily reference prices (ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC). Educational content, not financial advice.
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Educational content. Not financial advice.
WriterAbir KhanWriterWrites the guides · checks every figure against primary sources View profileAbout Abir →
Market analysisTanbir Habib RiyadForex & Crypto AnalystForex and crypto analyst · technical and fundamental analysis View profileAbout Tanbir →
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An FX Recap team effort, from Abir Khan to Ranjan N. MondolTap a photo to see who did what
USD/JPY worked out at 158.29 on Tuesday 3 November, using the ECB's euro reference rates, 39 pips above Monday's 157.90. That is above the 19 October swing high of 158.24 and 31 pips under the 12 October high of 158.60, the 20-day high. The rate is above its 20-day (157.94) and 50-day (157.38) averages but still under the 100-day (159.19). The 14-day RSI on the reference rates is about 55. Tuesday's rate was set before US midterm results came in overnight.
USD/JPY at a Glance
USD/JPY · US Dollar / Japanese Yen
158.29 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)+39 pips (+0.25%)
Today's biasNeutral
Neutral to bullish above 157.95
7-day range157.25 to 158.29104 pips, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)55 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averagesPrice above 2 of 3
20-day157.94 ▲
50-day157.38 ▲
100-day159.19 ▼
20-day range156.80 to 158.60
LowHigh
1Up 39 pips to 158.29, through the 19 October high.
2Above the 20 and 50-day averages.
3158.60, the 20-day high, is 31 pips away.
Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.
USD/JPY Live Chart and Technical Meter
Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
USD/JPY live chart
US Dollar / Japanese Yen, real-time priceUSD/JPY technical meter
Live buy/sell summary of moving averages and oscillatorsTechnical summary by TradingView, updated live. A reading of indicators, not a trade signal or advice.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
R 3159.20+91 pips100-day average (159.19)
R 2158.85+56 pips24 September reference-rate swing high (158.85)
R 1158.60+31 pips12 October reference-rate swing high (158.60), the 20-day high
Now158.29 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 1157.95−34 pips20-day average (157.94) and the 2 November rate (157.90)
S 2157.25−104 pips30 October reference-rate swing low (157.25)
S 3156.80−149 pips23 October rate, the 20-day low
USD/JPY Trading Plan Today
Three setups for the days ahead: sell a first test of 158.50 to 158.60 at the 20-day high, buy a confirmed close above 158.65, or buy a dip to the 20-day average at 157.95 to 158.05. The breakout trade has a thin reward to the next levels, so it suits smaller size.
Buy the breakout
- Entry
- Above 158.65 (close)
- Stop
- 158.25
- TP 1
- 158.85
- TP 2
- 159.20
Risk : reward1:0.5–1.4
Possible gain20–55 pips
Buy the dip
- Entry
- 157.95–158.05
- Stop
- 157.55
- TP 1
- 158.50
- TP 2
- 158.60
Risk : reward1:1.1–1.3
Possible gain50–60 pips
USD/JPY tends to move most in two windows: the Tokyo morning, when Japanese data come out and exporters set their dollar flows, and the New York session, when US data and Treasury yields take over.
Keep each trade's risk to 1% to 2% of your account with the position size calculator. These levels come from daily reference rates, not intraday highs and lows, so allow a little room.
Show the setups as a table
| Market Bias | Entry Zone | Stop Loss | Take Profit 1 | Take Profit 2 | Risk Reward | Possible Gain (pips) |
| Bearish | 158.50–158.60 | 158.95 | 157.95 | 157.30 | 1:1.5–3.1 | 60–125 |
| Bullish | Above 158.65 (close) | 158.25 | 158.85 | 159.20 | 1:0.5–1.4 | 20–55 |
| Bullish | 157.95–158.05 | 157.55 | 158.50 | 158.60 | 1:1.1–1.3 | 50–60 |
USD/JPY Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases
Bearish scenario
If US yields fall after the midterm vote, as markets reported overnight, and the dollar stays soft, the pair could fail at 158.60 and drop back to 157.95, then 157.25.
Bullish scenario
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95% on Tuesday, keeping the rate gap with Japan wide. A close above 158.65 would open 158.85 and 159.20. Wait for a close before buying.
USD/JPY Market Structure and Indicators
20-day average157.94Price above by 35 pips
50-day average157.38Price above by 91 pips
100-day average159.19Price below by 90 pips
14-day RSI55Between 30 and 70
On the reference rates, USD/JPY rallied from a 60-day low of 153.27 in September to 158.85 on 24 September, then traded between about 156.80 and 158.85 for more than a month. The lower highs inside that range, 158.60 on 12 October and 158.24 on 19 October, still cap the pair. The 30 October drop of 81 pips to 157.25, after the Bank of Japan's 8-1 hold, set a higher low than 156.80.
Rises of 65 and 39 pips since then lifted the rate to 158.29, above the 20 and 50-day averages and through the 19 October high. The next test is 158.60; a close above it would break the sequence of lower highs and open 158.85 and the 100-day average near 159.20. A close back below 157.95 would return the pair to the middle of its range. Our market structure guide explains how lower highs and higher lows define a range.
Last 7 Days Recap
USD/JPY rose 149 pips over the last seven working days on the reference rates, from 156.80 to 158.29, with six rises and one fall. Four rises of 65, 37, 14 and 10 pips took it to 158.06 by 29 October. The 81-pip drop on 30 October, after the Bank of Japan's decision, was the largest move of the period, and rises of 65 and 39 pips followed.
| Date | Reference rate | Change |
| Mon 26 Oct | 157.45 | +65 pips (+0.41%) |
| Tue 27 Oct | 157.82 | +37 pips (+0.23%) |
| Wed 28 Oct | 157.96 | +14 pips (+0.09%) |
| Thu 29 Oct | 158.06 | +10 pips (+0.06%) |
| Fri 30 Oct | 157.25 | −81 pips (−0.51%) |
| Mon 2 Nov | 157.90 | +65 pips (+0.41%) |
| Tue 3 Nov | 158.29 | +39 pips (+0.25%) |
| 7-day range | 157.25 to 158.29 | +149 pips (+0.95%) |
Today’s Economic Calendar and News
- US jobs report (October)High impact
- Fed rate decisionHigh impact
- Bank of Japan decisionHigh impact
Tuesday's main scheduled event was the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote and lifted its inflation forecasts. On the US Treasury's par curve the 2-year yield closed at 4.61% and the 10-year at 4.95%, both slightly higher on the day. US midterm election results came in overnight, after these rates were set; the Associated Press called the Senate for the Democrats, as reported by PBS NewsHour, and those results are unofficial until certified. Spot gold was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC on Wednesday (gold-api.com). The Bank of England decides on Thursday and the US jobs report follows on Friday. Currency prices on this page are ECB reference rates from Tuesday 3 November; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For the yen, our Bank of Japan story covers the 8-1 hold and Takata Hajime's call for 1.5%, which keeps a December move possible.
Live economic calendar
Upcoming releases, updated in real timeGeopolitical Factors and Market Impact
Japan's finance ministry watches sharp moves in either direction, and the 60-day high on reference rates is 160.16, not far above the current range. A heavy fuel import bill adds slow pressure on the yen in the background and can limit how far it strengthens.
Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note
Bottom line
USD/JPY has climbed to the top of its range at 158.29, just under the 158.60 high. The bias is neutral to bullish above 157.95: sell a first test of 158.50 to 158.60, buy a close above 158.65, and buy dips to the 20-day average with a tight stop.
The pair is pressing the top of a five-week range just as the US vote shakes up the dollar. I would let 158.60 prove itself before buying.
“I would sell a first test of 158.50 to 158.60 with a stop above 158.95, aiming for 157.95. A close above 158.65 would switch me to buying for 158.85 and 159.20.”
Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap
Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools
- Confirm the bias: Neutral to bullish above 157.95. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
- Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 158.60 · 158.85 · 159.20, support 157.95 · 157.25 · 156.80.
- Note the event times: US jobs report (October) (fri 6 nov), Fed rate decision (wed 9 dec), Bank of Japan decision (fri 18 dec). Spreads often widen around Fri 6 Nov UTC.
- Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
- Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
- Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart
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Disclaimer: this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly. Prices quoted are as of 4 November 2026, ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
Cite this guide
FX Recap, "USD/JPY Analysis Today: Pair at 158.29, Through the 19 October High and Just Under 158.60", updated 4 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/technical-analysis/usd-jpy-analysis-today
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The team behind this guide
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