XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Gold Steadies After Federal Reserve decision
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Spot gold was $4,018.30 an ounce at 06:46 UTC on Wednesday 4 November, according to gold-api.com, back above $4,000. Our previous reading, at 04:22 UTC on Monday 2 November, was $3,907.20, so the metal is $111.10 higher, and $141.90 above Friday's close of $3,876.40, the lowest reading in our log. US midterm results came in overnight. The highest reading in our log is still $4,045.20 from 29 October. Our official spot log only began on 25 October, so this page does not yet show moving averages or an RSI.

Gold at a Glance

XAU/USD · Gold Spot / US Dollar
$4,018 (spot, 06:46 UTC)+$111 (+2.84%)
4 November 2026, ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC · change vs previous reference rate
Today's biasNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
Neutral to bullish above $4,000
7-day range$3,876 to $4,045$169, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)Not enough data yetNeeds 15 daily readings
Moving averages
20-dayn/a
50-dayn/a
100-dayn/a
Not enough daily readings yet
20-day range$3,876 to $4,045
LowHigh

1Spot was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC, back above $4,000.

2Up $141.90 from Friday's close, the low of our log.

3$4,045 is the cap to clear.

Gold figures are spot readings from gold-api.com. Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

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Gold Live Chart and Technical Meter

Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.

XAU/USD live chart

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.

R 3$4,150+$132Half-way level above $4,100
R 2$4,100+$82Round number
R 1$4,045+$2729 October reading ($4,045.20), the highest in our log
Now$4,018 (spot, 06:46 UTC)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 1$4,000−$18Round number, reclaimed overnight
S 2$3,905−$1132 November reading ($3,907.20), where the rebound started
S 3$3,875−$143Friday 30 October close ($3,876.40), the lowest in our log

Gold Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the days ahead: buy a dip to $4,000 to $4,010 with a stop below $3,965, buy a close above $4,050, or sell a close back below $3,990 if the rebound fails. Friday's US jobs report and the official Treasury yields after the vote are the main tests.

Buy

Buy the $4,000 dip

Entry
$4,000–$4,010
Stop
$3,965
TP 1
$4,045
TP 2
$4,100
Risk : reward1:1.0–2.4
Possible gain$40–$95
Buy

Buy the breakout

Entry
Above $4,050 (close)
Stop
$4,010
TP 1
$4,100
TP 2
$4,150
Risk : reward1:1.3–2.5
Possible gain$50–$100
Sell

Sell a failed rebound

Entry
Below $3,990 (close)
Stop
$4,030
TP 1
$3,910
TP 2
$3,880
Risk : reward1:2.0–2.8
Possible gain$80–$110

Gold has moved more than $100 between two of our readings twice in the past week, so stops need room. Use the gold lot size calculator to keep each loss to 1% to 2% of your account, and check the live chart before entering because these levels are not intraday highs or lows.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain ($ per ounce)
Bullish$4,000–$4,010$3,965$4,045$4,1001:1.0–2.4$40–$95
BullishAbove $4,050 (close)$4,010$4,100$4,1501:1.3–2.5$50–$100
BearishBelow $3,990 (close)$4,030$3,910$3,8801:2.0–2.8$80–$110

Gold Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bullish scenario

If the dollar stays soft and Treasury yields ease after the vote, gold could hold above $4,000 and close above $4,050, the top of last week's band, opening $4,100 to $4,150.

Bearish scenario

A strong US jobs report or a bounce in yields could undo the rebound. A close below $3,990 would point back to $3,910 and Friday's $3,876 low.

Gold Market Structure and Indicators

20-day averagen/aNot enough daily readings yet
50-day averagen/aNot enough daily readings yet
100-day averagen/aNot enough daily readings yet
14-day RSIn/aNeeds 15 daily readings

Gold held above $4,000 from 26 to 29 October but could not clear $4,050, with readings of $4,043.50 and $4,045.20. It then fell hard: $3,994.90 early on 30 October and $3,876.40 at Friday's close, a drop of $168.80 from the high in two sessions, covered in our gold story.

The rebound has been just as quick. Monday's reading was $3,907.20, and by 06:46 UTC on Wednesday spot was $4,018.30, after US midterm results came in overnight. Gold is back inside last week's $4,000 to $4,050 band, with $4,045 the nearest cap. Our gold history starts on 25 October, so moving averages and an RSI will appear as the log grows; the levels below are our own readings plus round numbers. Our support and resistance guide explains why round numbers attract orders.

Last 7 Days Recap

$4,045.2$3,960.8$3,876.4Tue27 OctWed28 OctThu29 OctFri30 OctSat31 OctMon2 NovWed4 Nov

Over the last seven readings spot gold rose from $4,013.60 (26 October) to $4,018.30, a net gain of $4.70, but the path was anything but flat. Readings rose to $4,045.20 by 29 October, then fell $50.30 and $118.50 to Friday's close of $3,876.40, the largest move in our log. Monday's reading was $30.80 higher, and Wednesday's $111.10 higher again.

DateReference rateChange
Tue 27 Oct$4,008.3−$5.3 (−0.13%)
Wed 28 Oct$4,043.5+$35.2 (+0.88%)
Thu 29 Oct$4,045.2+$1.7 (+0.04%)
Fri 30 Oct$3,994.9−$50.3 (−1.24%)
Sat 31 Oct$3,876.4−$118.5 (−2.97%)
Mon 2 Nov$3,907.2+$30.8 (+0.79%)
Wed 4 Nov$4,018.3+$111.1 (+2.84%)
7-day range$3,876.4 to $4,045.2+$4.7 (+0.12%)
Last 7 working days. Spot gold from gold-api.com, one reading a day from our own log (begun 25 October 2026). Readings: 03:25 UTC 27 Oct, 04:18 UTC 28 Oct, 03:43 UTC 29 Oct, 03:18 UTC 30 Oct, 03:14 UTC Saturday 31 Oct (Friday's close), 04:22 UTC 2 Nov and 06:46 UTC 4 Nov; there is no reading for 3 Nov. Change is from the previous reading.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • US jobs report (October)High impact
  • Bank of England decisionMedium impact
  • Fed rate decisionHigh impact

Tuesday's main scheduled event was the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote and lifted its inflation forecasts. On the US Treasury's par curve the 2-year yield closed at 4.61% and the 10-year at 4.95%, both slightly higher on the day. US midterm election results came in overnight, after these rates were set; the Associated Press called the Senate for the Democrats, as reported by PBS NewsHour, and those results are unofficial until certified. Spot gold was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC on Wednesday (gold-api.com). The Bank of England decides on Thursday and the US jobs report follows on Friday. Currency prices on this page are ECB reference rates from Tuesday 3 November; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For gold, the dollar and real yields after the vote matter most; our gold and midterms story has the official yields and the levels to watch.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Energy prices are behind much of this year's inflation news, and US politics is now a second source of uncertainty. A change in control of Congress can alter expectations for spending and borrowing, which move yields and the dollar. That two-way risk keeps gold's daily ranges wide, so keep stops in place.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

Gold is back above $4,000 after one of its sharpest two-day swings in our log. The bias is neutral to bullish above $4,000: buy dips to that line with a stop under $3,965, add only on a close above $4,050, and turn bearish on a close below $3,990.

A $169 drop and a $142 rebound in a week tells me gold is trading headlines. I like the $4,000 line as support, but $4,045 has turned buyers back before.

“I would buy $4,000 to $4,010 with a stop below $3,965, aiming for $4,045 and then $4,100. A close under $3,990 would make me step aside.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Neutral to bullish above $4,000. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance $4,045 · $4,100 · $4,150, support $4,000 · $3,905 · $3,875.
  • Note the event times: US jobs report (October) (fri 6 nov), Bank of England decision (thu 5 nov), Fed rate decision (wed 9 dec). Spreads often widen around Fri 6 Nov UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Gold lot size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

EUR/USD Bearish1.1179 (ECB, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bearish below 1.1195GBP/USD Bullish1.3411 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Bullish above 1.3375; BoE ThursdayUSD/JPY Neutral158.29 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bullish above 157.95AUD/USD Bearish0.6984 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bearish below 0.7010

Read More

For traders working through today’s setup, these guides cover the concepts used in this Gold Technical Analysis:

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Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past chart behavior does not guarantee future results.

Source for the Fed’s policy stance: Federal Reserve — Monetary Policy involves risk of loss.

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