AUD/USD worked out at 0.6984 on Tuesday 3 November, using the ECB's euro reference rates, 24 pips below Monday's 0.7008 and its third fall in a row. The rate was set about ten hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote, so the hike did not lift the currency. The pair is just under its 20-day average (0.6994) and below the 100-day (0.7032) and 50-day (0.7063). The 14-day RSI on the reference rates is about 44.

AUD/USD at a Glance

AUD/USD · Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.6984 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)−24 pips (−0.34%)
4 November 2026, ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC · change vs previous reference rate
Today's biasBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
Neutral to bearish below 0.7010
7-day range0.6984 to 0.703349 pips, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)44 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averages
20-day0.6994 ▼
50-day0.7063 ▼
100-day0.7032 ▼
Price below all three
20-day range0.6911 to 0.7034
LowHigh

1RBA hiked to 4.85% (6-3), yet the rate fell 24 pips.

2Third fall in a row, just under the 20-day average.

30.6940 guards the October low of 0.6911.

Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

AUD/USD Live Chart and Technical Meter

Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.

AUD/USD live chart

Australian Dollar / US Dollar, real-time price
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AUD/USD technical meter

Live buy/sell summary of moving averages and oscillators
Live
Technical summary by TradingView, updated live. A reading of indicators, not a trade signal or advice.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.

R 30.7065+81 pips50-day average (0.7063)
R 20.7035+51 pips21 October swing high (0.7034) and the 100-day average (0.7032)
R 10.7010+26 pips14 October swing high (0.7010) and the 2 November rate (0.7008)
Now0.6984 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 10.6980−4 pips9 October swing high (0.6981), just under Tuesday's rate
S 20.6940−44 pips2 and 8 October swing lows (0.6939, 0.6944)
S 30.6910−74 pips15 October swing low (0.6911), the 20 and 60-day low

AUD/USD Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the days ahead: sell a bounce to 0.7000 to 0.7010 with a stop above 0.7040, buy a confirmed close above 0.7040, or buy a dip into 0.6940 to 0.6950 with a stop below 0.6905. The RBA's split vote suggests the hiking cycle is near its end, which limits how much support higher rates give the Aussie.

Sell

Sell the 0.7005 bounce

Entry
0.7000–0.7010
Stop
0.7040
TP 1
0.6945
TP 2
0.6915
Risk : reward1:1.7–2.6
Possible gain60–90 pips
Buy

Buy the breakout

Entry
Above 0.7040 (close)
Stop
0.7005
TP 1
0.7065
TP 2
0.7110
Risk : reward1:0.7–2.0
Possible gain25–70 pips
Buy

Buy the dip

Entry
0.6940–0.6950
Stop
0.6905
TP 1
0.6985
TP 2
0.7010
Risk : reward1:1.0–1.6
Possible gain40–65 pips

AUD/USD tends to move most in two windows: the Sydney and Tokyo morning, when Australian, New Zealand and Chinese data come out, and the London and New York overlap, when US data and Treasury yields take over.

Keep each trade's risk to 1% to 2% of your account, and work out the size with the position size calculator before you enter. The levels come from daily reference rates, so allow a few pips either side.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain (pips)
Bearish0.7000–0.70100.70400.69450.69151:1.7–2.660–90
BullishAbove 0.7040 (close)0.70050.70650.71101:0.7–2.025–70
Bullish0.6940–0.69500.69050.69850.70101:1.0–1.640–65

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bearish scenario

If markets read the 6-3 vote as the last hike, or US data on Friday are strong, AUD/USD could slip to 0.6940 and then the 15 October low near 0.6910.

Bullish scenario

The RBA's new forecasts see inflation above 3% until late 2027, which keeps a December rise possible. A weaker dollar after the US vote and a close above 0.7040 would open 0.7065, then 0.7110.

AUD/USD Market Structure and Indicators

20-day average0.6994Price below by 10 pips
50-day average0.7063Price below by 79 pips
100-day average0.7032Price below by 48 pips
14-day RSI44Between 30 and 70

On the reference rates, AUD/USD fell from a 60-day high of 0.7225 to 0.6911 on 15 October, the low of the last 60 working days, then recovered to 0.7034 on 21 October. It spent the next week pressed against that high and the 100-day average without breaking through, the best reading 0.7033 on 28 October.

Four falls since have turned that cap into a lower high. Tuesday's 0.6984 is just under the 20-day average (0.6994), and the 50-day average at 0.7063 is now falling towards the price. The 14-day RSI near 44 leans soft. A close back above 0.7010 would steady the pair; a slide under 0.6940 would put the 15 October low at 0.6911 in view.

Last 7 Days Recap

0.70330.70090.6984Mon26 OctTue27 OctWed28 OctThu29 OctFri30 OctMon2 NovTue3 Nov

AUD/USD fell 38 pips over the last seven working days on the reference rates, from 0.7022 to 0.6984, with three rises and four falls. Small rises of 3, 7 and 1 pips took it to 0.7033 on 28 October. Falls of 7, 1, 17 and 24 pips followed, and Tuesday's 24-pip drop, on the day of the RBA hike, was the largest move of the period.

DateReference rateChange
Mon 26 Oct0.7025+3 pips (+0.04%)
Tue 27 Oct0.7032+7 pips (+0.10%)
Wed 28 Oct0.7033+1 pips (+0.01%)
Thu 29 Oct0.7026−7 pips (−0.10%)
Fri 30 Oct0.7025−1 pips (−0.01%)
Mon 2 Nov0.7008−17 pips (−0.24%)
Tue 3 Nov0.6984−24 pips (−0.34%)
7-day range0.6984 to 0.7033−38 pips (−0.54%)
Last 7 working days. Derived from ECB euro reference rates, set around 14:15 CET each working day; AUD/USD = EUR/USD ÷ EUR/AUD. Change is from the previous working day's rate.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • US jobs report (October)High impact
  • RBA rate decisionHigh impact
  • Fed rate decisionHigh impact

Tuesday's main scheduled event was the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote and lifted its inflation forecasts. On the US Treasury's par curve the 2-year yield closed at 4.61% and the 10-year at 4.95%, both slightly higher on the day. US midterm election results came in overnight, after these rates were set; the Associated Press called the Senate for the Democrats, as reported by PBS NewsHour, and those results are unofficial until certified. Spot gold was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC on Wednesday (gold-api.com). The Bank of England decides on Thursday and the US jobs report follows on Friday. Currency prices on this page are ECB reference rates from Tuesday 3 November; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For the Aussie, our RBA decision story covers the 6-3 vote and the new forecasts, and our New Zealand jobs story explains the widening rate gap with the kiwi. The RBA cash rate target is now 4.85%, against a Fed range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

The main outside risks for AUD/USD are a sharp fall in global stock markets, which tends to send money back into the US dollar and the yen, and any disappointment in Chinese data, which can hit demand for Australian exports. Higher oil prices also feed Australian inflation, which keeps the RBA under pressure.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

AUD/USD is neutral to bearish below 0.7010 after the market shrugged off the RBA's hike. Sell a bounce to 0.7000 to 0.7010, buy only a close above 0.7040, and watch 0.6940 as the support that keeps the pair off its October low.

A rate hike and the currency still fell. That tells me the market sees the end of the cycle, and the dollar side will drive the pair from here.

“I would sell a bounce to 0.7000 to 0.7010 with a stop above 0.7040, looking for 0.6945. A close above 0.7040 would change my mind.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Neutral to bearish below 0.7010. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 0.7010 · 0.7035 · 0.7065, support 0.6980 · 0.6940 · 0.6910.
  • Note the event times: US jobs report (October) (fri 6 nov), RBA rate decision (tue 8 dec), Fed rate decision (wed 9 dec). Spreads often widen around Fri 6 Nov UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

EUR/USD Bearish1.1179 (ECB, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bearish below 1.1195GBP/USD Bullish1.3411 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Bullish above 1.3375; BoE ThursdayGold Neutral$4,018 (spot, 06:46 UTC) · Neutral to bullish above $4,000USD/JPY Neutral158.29 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bullish above 157.95

Disclaimer: this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly. Prices quoted are as of 4 November 2026, ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.

Cite this guide

FX Recap, "AUD/USD Analysis Today: Aussie Slips to 0.6984 Despite the RBA's Hike to 4.85%", updated 4 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/technical-analysis/aud-usd-analysis-today

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