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Sell the 1.1210 retest
- Entry
- 1.1205–1.1215
- Stop
- 1.1245
- TP 1
- 1.1150
- TP 2
- 1.1130
Risk : reward1:1.7–2.3
Possible gain60–80 pips
EUR/USD Analysis Today: Reference Rate at 1.1179 After a Two-Day Bounce Stalls Under 1.1220
EUR/USD today: price, chart and key levelsUpdated 4 November 2026 · ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC
Bearish bias
ECB reference 1.1179▼ −37 pips · −0.33% vs previous
Where it sits in the 20-day range
1.1130 low1.1253 high
RSI (14)
41 neutral zone30 · 70
▼ 20-day 1.1192▼ 50-day 1.1373▼ 100-day 1.1424
Next: US jobs report (October) · Fri 6 Nov
Nearest levels
R11.119516 pips above
S11.115029 pips below
Key levels
S31.1100S21.1130S11.1150Now1.1179R11.1195R21.1215R31.1255
Live quote by TradingView. Chart, levels and stats use daily reference prices (ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC). Educational content, not financial advice.
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Educational content. Not financial advice.
WriterAbir KhanWriterWrites the guides · checks every figure against primary sources View profileAbout Abir →
Market analysisTanbir Habib RiyadForex & Crypto AnalystForex and crypto analyst · technical and fundamental analysis View profileAbout Tanbir →
Fact-checking & riskJannatul FerdaushFact-Checker & Risk AnalystFact-checks every figure · risk analysis · Applied Statistics, University of Dhaka View profileAbout Jannatul →
Trading reviewJowel RanaForex TraderForex trader · reviews guides from a trader's view View profileAbout Jowel →
Final approvalRanjan N. MondolForex TraderForex trader · signs off every guide View profileAbout Ranjan →
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An FX Recap team effort, from Abir Khan to Ranjan N. MondolTap a photo to see who did what
EUR/USD's ECB reference rate was 1.1179 on Tuesday 3 November, 37 pips below Monday's 1.1216. The euro had bounced 86 pips in two days from the 2026 low of 1.1130, set on 29 October, but gave back almost half of it on Tuesday. The rate sits just under its 20-day average (1.1192) and still about 195 to 245 pips under the 50 and 100-day averages (1.1373 and 1.1424). The 14-day RSI on the reference rates is about 41. Tuesday's rate was set before US midterm results came in overnight.
EUR/USD at a Glance
EUR/USD · Euro / US Dollar
1.1179 (ECB, 3 Nov)−37 pips (−0.33%)
Today's biasBearish
Neutral to bearish below 1.1195
7-day range1.1130 to 1.121686 pips, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)41 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averagesPrice below all three
20-day1.1192 ▼
50-day1.1373 ▼
100-day1.1424 ▼
20-day range1.1130 to 1.1253
LowHigh
1Tuesday's 1.1179 gave back 37 pips of an 86-pip bounce.
2Back under the 20-day average (1.1192).
3The 2026 low of 1.1130 is the line that matters.
Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.
EUR/USD Live Chart and Technical Meter
Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
EUR/USD live chart
Euro / US Dollar, real-time priceEUR/USD technical meter
Live buy/sell summary of moving averages and oscillatorsTechnical summary by TradingView, updated live. A reading of indicators, not a trade signal or advice.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 3 Nov, gold 06:46 UTC.
R 31.1255+76 pips16 October reference-rate swing high (1.1253), the 20-day high
R 21.1215+36 pips2 November reference rate (1.1216), where the bounce stalled
R 11.1195+16 pips20-day average (1.1192)
Now1.1179 (ECB, 3 Nov)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 11.1150−29 pips27 October reference rate (1.1150)
S 21.1130−49 pips29 October reference rate (1.1130), the 2026 low
S 31.1100−79 pipsRound number under the 2026 low
EUR/USD Trading Plan Today
Three setups for the days ahead. One sells a retest of 1.1205 to 1.1215, where Monday's bounce stalled, another buys a close above 1.1220, and the third buys a dip to 1.1135 to 1.1145, just above the 2026 low, with a tight stop. Friday's US jobs report can move the pair by more than any of these ranges, so cut size into the release.
Buy the breakout
- Entry
- Above 1.1220 (close)
- Stop
- 1.1185
- TP 1
- 1.1255
- TP 2
- 1.1300
Risk : reward1:1.0–2.3
Possible gain35–80 pips
Buy the low
- Entry
- 1.1135–1.1145
- Stop
- 1.1105
- TP 1
- 1.1180
- TP 2
- 1.1215
Risk : reward1:1.1–2.1
Possible gain40–75 pips
The levels come from daily reference rates, not intraday highs and lows, so allow a few pips either side and check the live chart before you enter. Size each setup so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account; the position size calculator does the maths.
Show the setups as a table
| Market Bias | Entry Zone | Stop Loss | Take Profit 1 | Take Profit 2 | Risk Reward | Possible Gain (pips) |
| Bearish | 1.1205–1.1215 | 1.1245 | 1.1150 | 1.1130 | 1:1.7–2.3 | 60–80 |
| Bullish | Above 1.1220 (close) | 1.1185 | 1.1255 | 1.1300 | 1:1.0–2.3 | 35–80 |
| Bullish | 1.1135–1.1145 | 1.1105 | 1.1180 | 1.1215 | 1:1.1–2.1 | 40–75 |
EUR/USD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases
Bearish scenario
If the dollar firms on strong US data, the rate could fail again under 1.1215 and slide to 1.1150, then the 1.1130 low. A close below 1.1130 would open 1.1100. The scenario fails on a close above 1.1220.
Bullish scenario
A weaker dollar after the US midterms, if it lasts, could lift the rate back over the 20-day average. A close above 1.1220 would target 1.1255, the 20-day high, and then 1.1300.
EUR/USD Market Structure and Indicators
20-day average1.1192Price below by 13 pips
50-day average1.1373Price below by 194 pips
100-day average1.1424Price below by 245 pips
14-day RSI41Between 30 and 70
On the ECB's daily reference rates, EUR/USD is still in a downtrend from its 60-day high of 1.1699, with lower highs at 1.1269 on 6 October, 1.1253 on 16 October and 1.1234 on 21 October. The fall reached 1.1130 on 29 October, the lowest reference rate of 2026. Rises of 42 pips on 30 October and 44 pips on 2 November followed, taking the rate to 1.1216.
That bounce did not last. Tuesday's 37-pip fall to 1.1179 put the rate back under the 20-day average (1.1192), so the rebound has not yet changed the trend. The 50 and 100-day averages, at 1.1373 and 1.1424, are far above. A reference rate back above 1.1220 would make the 29 October low look like a turning point and open 1.1255; a slide under 1.1130 would mean a new 2026 low. Our support and resistance guide explains how these turning points work.
Last 7 Days Recap
Over the last seven working days the EUR/USD reference rate slipped from 1.1193 to 1.1179, a net loss of 14 pips, with two rises and five falls. Four falls in a row, the largest 38 pips on 27 October, took it to the 2026 low of 1.1130. Rises of 42 and 44 pips followed, the two biggest moves of the period, before Tuesday's 37-pip drop.
| Date | Reference rate | Change |
| Mon 26 Oct | 1.1188 | −5 pips (−0.04%) |
| Tue 27 Oct | 1.1150 | −38 pips (−0.34%) |
| Wed 28 Oct | 1.1133 | −17 pips (−0.15%) |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1.1130 | −3 pips (−0.03%) |
| Fri 30 Oct | 1.1172 | +42 pips (+0.38%) |
| Mon 2 Nov | 1.1216 | +44 pips (+0.39%) |
| Tue 3 Nov | 1.1179 | −37 pips (−0.33%) |
| 7-day range | 1.1130 to 1.1216 | −14 pips (−0.13%) |
Today’s Economic Calendar and News
- US jobs report (October)High impact
- Fed rate decisionHigh impact
- ECB rate decisionHigh impact
Tuesday's main scheduled event was the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote and lifted its inflation forecasts. On the US Treasury's par curve the 2-year yield closed at 4.61% and the 10-year at 4.95%, both slightly higher on the day. US midterm election results came in overnight, after these rates were set; the Associated Press called the Senate for the Democrats, as reported by PBS NewsHour, and those results are unofficial until certified. Spot gold was $4,018.30 at 06:46 UTC on Wednesday (gold-api.com). The Bank of England decides on Thursday and the US jobs report follows on Friday. Currency prices on this page are ECB reference rates from Tuesday 3 November; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For the dollar side, our gold and midterms story covers the Treasury yields to watch, and our ECB decision story explains the euro side.
Live economic calendar
Upcoming releases, updated in real timeGeopolitical Factors and Market Impact
Energy prices remain the main outside force on the euro. Lagarde said energy inflation reached 18.9% in September, and higher energy costs weigh on Europe's economy while lifting inflation elsewhere. US politics is now a second factor: a change in control of Congress can shift expectations for US spending and borrowing, which feed into Treasury yields and the dollar.
Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note
Bottom line
EUR/USD has bounced from its 2026 low but is back under the 20-day average. The bias is neutral to bearish below 1.1195: sell a retest of 1.1205 to 1.1215, buy only a close above 1.1220, and treat 1.1130 as the line that decides whether the downtrend resumes.
Two strong days off the low, then a sharp step back. The bounce looks like short covering so far, and the averages above are still falling.
“I would sell 1.1205 to 1.1215 with a stop above 1.1245, looking for 1.1150 and then 1.1130. A close above 1.1220 would tell me the low is in.”
Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap
Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools
- Confirm the bias: Neutral to bearish below 1.1195. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
- Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 1.1195 · 1.1215 · 1.1255, support 1.1150 · 1.1130 · 1.1100.
- Note the event times: US jobs report (October) (fri 6 nov), Fed rate decision (wed 9 dec), ECB rate decision (thu 17 dec). Spreads often widen around Fri 6 Nov UTC.
- Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
- Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
- Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart
Other markets today
GBP/USD Bullish1.3411 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Bullish above 1.3375; BoE ThursdayGold Neutral$4,018 (spot, 06:46 UTC) · Neutral to bullish above $4,000USD/JPY Neutral158.29 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bullish above 157.95AUD/USD Bearish0.6984 (ECB-derived, 3 Nov) · Neutral to bearish below 0.7010
Read More
For traders working through today’s setup, these guides cover the concepts used in this EURUSD Technical Analysis:
- Learn how liquidity and structural context fit together in Smart Money Concepts
- Review how this week’s breakdown qualifies as a Break of Structure
- Understand how the 1.1130 low and the 20-day average work as Support and Resistance
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past chart behavior does not guarantee future results.
Source for the ECB’s current policy rates: European Central Bank — Key ECB Interest Rates
The team behind this guide
Researched, checked and approved by five forex specialists
Every guide is written, fact-checked and edited before it goes live, and updated when the facts change. Spotted an error? Tell us.
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